Globalisation - Pandemic on the Wing

News from around the globe that the newspapers seldom print

Disclaimer and fair comment

While I agree with most of the material passed on I may not be in agreement with all. However there is much we can learn from some that we disagree with. Remember it was once thought that the earth was flat.

It is left to your judgment to determine what you agree with and what to act upon.

Globalisation:

All our politicians wanted it and now:

All our chickens have come home to roost.

Lesley

Pandemic on the wing

Experts warn a bird flu outbreak could hit Australia within a year, causing millions of deaths and, some say, a breakdown in social order, writes Roy Eccleston

September 09, 2005

Australia has been planning for a pandemic since 1997, he says. As well, the two most recent flu pandemics - in 1957 and 1968 - were far less lethal than the 1919 outbreak, killing perhaps a million people each worldwide and fewer than 500 in Australia.

The first transmission of H5N1 to humans was in Hong Kong in 1997, affecting 18 people and killing six of them. Since then there have been outbreaks in poultry in China and across Southeast Asia. In the past 20 months, 112 people have become ill and 57 have died.

But to cause a pandemic the virus must evolve and transmit from human to human. It could do this by mixing with a flu virus better adapted to mammals, perhaps in a pig, cat or human. If that happened, the most likely place for it to strike would be Asia, where people live closely with infected birds. From there it would be a plane trip to Australia. Infection would be rampant, given human immune systems have never encountered this strain before.

Even though Australia is arguably the best prepared of any country, Canberra's modelling suggests that without vaccine, 13,000 to 44,000 could die, up to 148,000 could be hospitalised, and maybe 7.5 million people could make outpatient visits.

DEATH BY INFLUENZA

1918-19: Between 20 million and 50 million die worldwide from a Spanish flu pandemic, believed to have originated in Asia. Worst hit are young men.
1957: Asian flu pandemic, first identified in China, kills an estimated one million worldwide, with schoolchildren and young adults the main victims.
1968: Hong Kong flu global pandemic leaves at least 750,000 dead.
1997: First documented human infection with avian flu virus H5N1 in Hong Kong. Eighteen people contract severe respiratory problems. Six die.
2003: H5N1 strikes again in Hong Kong. Two people are infected and one dies. A different strain, H7N7, infects Dutch poultry farms, infecting 83 people and killing one. H5N1 outbreak in South Korean poultry.
January 2004: First outbreak of H5N1 in Japan; outbreaks in Thailand and Vietnam infect 11 people and kill eight.
June 2004: China, Indonesia and Malaysia begin reporting cases. Death toll reaches 23.
November 2004: World Health Organisation warns the H5N1 strain could trigger a worldwide pandemic that would kill millions of people.
February 2005: First case of human infection with H5N1 from Cambodia.
June 2005: Australia releases flu pandemic disaster management plan, warning up to 44,000 people could die without a vaccine or treatment.
July 2005: First case of human infection in Indonesia.
August 2005: Latest estimates cite 112 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus, 90 in Vietnam, 17 in Thailand, four in Cambodia and one in Indonesia. Death toll since January 2004 hits 57.

* Sources: Nature, WHO,

Centres forDisease Control and Prevention, Australian Government.

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